The "Zune", Microsoft's attempt to provide an iPod-killer, is finally here. While we should never forget lessons such as those from "thread 500" (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=500) in which Apple enthusiasts felt the iPod was doomed from the start, it seems, unfortunately, that the Zune will be a flop.
But it could have been the iPod killer, had Microsoft connected the dots. The last few months I've been discussing with hardcore Apple fans why the Zune might had been the expected iPod killer, and, though they had been (or at least seemed to be) convinced, their response was quite simply: "you are assuming Microsoft can connect the dots, but it can't!'
Oh My, Microsoft, why can't you connect the dots?
Here's what an iPod killer could be like, and, by the way, every single bit of tech is already market-mature.
The only interesting thing about the Zune is that it has Wi-Fi. Wi-Fi alone should suffice for a serious iPod competitor, but I'm not talking about "sharing" music. I'm talking about attacking Apple's iPod, the Telecoms, eBay, and MySpace in one single move. Something truly bold, something that could boost Microsoft's shares. But I guess the company just passed up the opportunity. Maybe next year.
So let's connect the dots.
When you send a two-line email to a colleague next door, it is free, right? And when you send a huge email with an attached video to that friend of yours in Kazakhstan, it is still free, right? Data going through the internet does not carry a price, regardless of destination, or length. As it is for emails, so it should be for next generation phones. The Zune should have been the first major mp3 player with an VOIP Wi-Fi phone, using Microsoft's own messenger network. Want to call Tokyo? No need for a dialpad, just select your messenger buddy from a list and presto. They can be at their computer or at their Zune, and conversation flows nicely. For free. From any hotspot, on your home, your work, on the go, and so forth. It's not a cell-phone, no such coverage, but hey, these worldwide calling rates are unbeatable!
Quite literally unbeatable.
Not only would such capability make the iPod seem pale by comparison, but this move could create a huge network effect around Microsoft's VOIP service, bringing a severe blow to eBay's skype, and a warning message to the (already troubled) telecoms. Of course, there are already Wi-Fi skype phones on the market but who's willing to carry around a cell phone, a VOIP phone, and an mp3 player, at sky-high costs? A single Wi-Fi skype phone costs over 200 bucks.
Moreover, these skype phones are totally wrong in design. They come from the previous age of phone numbers--and that's the wrong metaphor to think about them. In VOIP, there are no phone numbers. Regardless of where your buddies are, there's only a buddy list. So the crucial insight of the original iPod should be incorporated in Wi-Fi phones: manage music and buddies on the computer, not on the device. Make the device extremely simple and futuristic looking. Click wheel plus button.
There are hundreds of millions of VOIP users around the world. And they all look like call center people. Why not give them something cool instead? Something sleek?
Finally, the iPod is about identity, it's about showing off who you are, with the latest model and your own pick of music. So there's plenty of space to attack that other player on the market for showing off your identity: MySpace. Why not let users create Zune (or iPod) profiles, which could be seen (optionally) by anyone within your wireless range? The Zune does it to some basic extent, but it's no MySpace threat. The mere curiosity of walking into a restaurant and looking at that girl's profile (or that guy's one if that's your preference), with personal info, background music, photos and videos, could make for an iPod killer. It could bring people together.
That's the formula for an iPod killer.
But don't expect Microsoft to connect these dots. At least not so fast.
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